An exclusive Australia Zone poll shows Labor leading by a considerable margin in the lead-up to the 2021 Western Australian state election.
A week from the Western Australian election, a continuation of Mark McGowan’s Labor government appears almost guaranteed.
Recent polls have consistently indicated a landslide Labor victory, with a Newspoll in February estimating Labor’s primary vote at 59% and a 68% two-party-preferred vote. An Australia Zone poll conducted from 20 January to 1 February tells a similarly lopsided story.
Australia Zone‘s survey, conducted online through Pollfish, polled 500 Western Australians aged 16 years or more, of which 404 answered that they would vote in the upcoming election. Respondents were asked which party would receive their first preference for the Legislative Assembly if the state election were held the next day. The results are welcome news for the Labor Party, which would have received approximately 54% of the first preference vote, compared to just 25% for the Liberal Party, 7% for the Greens, 3% for the Nationals and 10% for other parties and Independent candidates.
Respondents were not asked to state their preference of the two major parties, but a primary vote of 54% would likely result in Labor recording approximately 65% of the two-party-preferred vote. With Labor’s lead over the Liberal Party so significant, it is almost undeniable that the incumbent government will retain – and likely expand – its majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly, and therefore remain in executive government.
Such is Labor’s domination in the polls, the party may also achieve the difficult feat of winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Council, the parliament’s upper house, which is elected by a proportional representation system that heavily favours rural areas over metropolitan regions. Liberal leader Zak Kirkup has warned voters against giving Labor a majority in both chambers of parliament, advocating “checks and balances” and promising to hold a Labor government to account with whatever legislative power is afforded to the Liberal Party, after conceding that the Liberals had no realistic chance of winning the election.
Kirkup, though, is in danger of losing his own seat of Dawesville, which he narrowly won with 50.7% of the two-candidate-preferred vote in the 2017 general election. Increased support for Labor in the intervening years could see Kirkup lose his place in parliament, with only a small swing required to unseat the Liberal leader.
Australia Zone‘s poll found Mark McGowan to be the state’s preferred Premier, by a sizeable margin. 85% of Western Australians believe McGowan, the incumbent, would be the better Premier, while only 4% would have more faith in Kirkup. 11% have no preference between the two. Labor and Liberal voters alike are more supportive of McGowan, who cautiously steered Western Australia through the COVID-19 pandemic.